As armed conflicts escalate across the globe—from the Middle East to Eastern Europe and Africa—public health experts are issuing urgent warnings about a secondary crisis unfolding away from the front lines: the dramatic rise in war-related health risks. While direct casualties from violence capture headlines, the indirect health consequences—spreading disease, mental health collapse, and the destruction of healthcare infrastructure—are proving to be far more deadly and enduring .
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), approximately 90% of conflict-related casualties since World War II have been among civilians, and modern warfare is exacerbating this trend . The latest escalations in the Middle East, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the civil conflict in Sudan are creating a perfect storm of public health emergencies that experts warn will have generational consequences .
Background: Conflict as a Determinant of Health
The notion that peace is foundational to health is not merely political rhetoric; it is a epidemiological reality. A systematic analysis published in The Lancet found that between 1990 and 2017, conflicts were associated with an estimated 29 million excess deaths due to indirect effects. These include the resurgence of communicable diseases, malnutrition, and the collapse of maternal and child healthcare services .
In 2024, the number of state-based conflicts reached a historic high of at least 61, a trend that has continued into 2025 and 2026 . The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) reports that conflict levels have nearly doubled in the last five years, surging from approximately 104,000 events in 2020 to nearly 200,000 by 2025 . This escalation is actively dismantling health systems rather than merely disrupting them .
What Happened: The Latest Surge in the Middle East
The most recent spike in war-related health risks stems from the escalation of conflict in the Middle East starting in late February 2026. According to WHO statements, the violence has spread across 16 countries, putting health systems and lives at risk throughout the region and beyond .
As of mid-March 2026, national health authorities report staggering casualty figures. In Iran, more than 1,300 deaths and 9,000 injuries have been recorded. Lebanon has reported at least 570 deaths and over 1,400 injuries, while Israel has documented 15 deaths and more than 2,100 injuries .
Beyond the toll on human life, the conflict is actively targeting the very infrastructure meant to save it. Since February 28, WHO has verified 18 attacks on health care in Iran, resulting in the deaths of at least 8 health workers. In Lebanon, 25 attacks on health facilities have killed 16 people and injured 29. Two attacks have also been verified in Israel . "These attacks not only claim lives but also deprive communities of critical care when they need it most," warned WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus .
In Lebanon, the situation is so dire that 49 primary health-care centers and five hospitals have been forced to shut down following evacuation orders . Meanwhile, in the occupied Palestinian territory, increased movement restrictions are delaying ambulances, and medical evacuations from Gaza remain suspended, leaving hospitals operating under severe shortages of fuel, medicines, and supplies .
The Hidden Health Crisis: Displacement and Disease
The immediate violence is only one part of the equation. The mass displacement of populations is creating fertile ground for infectious diseases. Current estimates indicate that more than 100,000 people have left Tehran, and up to 700,000 people have been internally displaced in Lebanon. Many are now living in crowded collective shelters with limited access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene .
WHO officials warn that these conditions dramatically increase the risk of respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, and other communicable illnesses. Vulnerable groups, particularly women and children, are most at risk .
Environmental hazards are compounding the problem. In Iran, petroleum fires and smoke from damaged infrastructure have exposed nearby communities to toxic pollutants, potentially causing breathing problems, eye and skin irritation, and contamination of water and food sources . The threat of nuclear facilities being impacted also looms large, with WHO noting that any compromise to nuclear safety could have "serious public health consequences" .
Expert Perspectives: The Long Tail of Trauma
The mental health ramifications of modern conflict are also coming into sharper focus. According to research cited by the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, the psychological distress caused by war extends far beyond those directly involved. People watching events unfold indirectly through mass media coverage are also experiencing anxiety and uncertainty .
Data from Israel illustrates this trend. Researchers at the Hebrew University found that the prevalence of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) among the population surveyed jumped from 12% in 2022 to 21% by December 2023, correlating with the onset of the war with Hamas .
In Ukraine, the health impacts are similarly pervasive. Beyond the more than 2,000 documented attacks on health facilities since 2022, researchers have noted a resurgence of infectious diseases. Tuberculosis incidence, which stood at 44 per 100,000 people in 2021, rose to 48.4 per 100,000 in 2023. Furthermore, rabies risk is increasing as the war disrupts vaccination programs for pets and livestock .
What This Means Going Forward: A Broken Supply Chain
The ripple effects of these conflicts are now threatening global health supply chains. The WHO's Logistics Hub for Global Health Emergencies in Dubai—which fulfilled more than 500 emergency orders for 75 countries last year—has temporarily suspended operations due to insecurity and airspace closures .
This disruption is preventing access to $18 million worth of humanitarian health supplies. Another $8 million in shipments cannot reach the hub, and more than 50 emergency supply requests from 25 countries are currently affected. Critically, $6 million in medicines destined for Gaza and $1.6 million in polio laboratory supplies are held up .
Dr. Hanan Balkhy, WHO Regional Director for the Eastern Mediterranean, highlighted the funding gap that exacerbates these challenges, noting that emergency operations across the region face a 70% funding shortfall. "Without urgent financial support, essential services will cease—and preventable suffering will deepen," she warned .
Conclusion
The rise in war-related health risks represents a fundamental challenge to global public health. As The Lancet editorialized in early 2026, conflict is no longer an externality to health; it is a central determinant that cuts across every major health agenda . From the toxic smoke over Tehran to the crowded shelters of Lebanon and the disrupted tuberculosis treatments in Ukraine, the evidence is clear: war dismantles the very foundations of human well-being. Going forward, protecting health infrastructure, ensuring the safe passage of medical supplies, and recognizing that peace is not adjacent to health but foundational to it will be essential to mitigating this growing crisis.
Suggested Tags or Keywords
War-related health risks, conflict and public health, WHO Middle East, attacks on health care, displacement health risks, infectious disease outbreak, PTSD war, healthcare under fire, Gaza health crisis, Ukraine war health impact.